New NHC model shows minor change in path; Hurricane Hunter due later today

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 - 04:15

A US military aircraft, referred to as a Hurricane Hunter, will fly into the area of disturbed weather east of Trinidad and Tobago later today, to determine whether it has cyclonic activity to make it a tropical depression, storm or even a hurricane.

A new path model released by the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami is showing a slight shift northward, with the lower end of the system set to pass over Northern Trinidad.

It differs slightly from the model released on Monday, which showed the possibility of the entire island being covered by the system.

The NHC is still predicting heavy rainfall from as low as the northern coast of South America, regardless of where the system passes.

These models are at this time still only predictions and can change at any time.

The National Hurricane Centre released this statement on the system, around 2 am Tuesday:

"Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical cyclone could be forming.

If this trend continues, then a tropical depression or a tropical storm would likely form later today while the system moves west-northwestward to westward at about 20 mph. 

Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings could be required at any time.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday.  

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent"

Meanwhile, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is due to issue another bulletin around 8 am today.